The Sailer Strategy and the awakening of white America (maybe)

The Sailer Strategy is a strategy for the Republican Party to dominate US politics.

Current Republican orthodoxy suggests that the party must pander to minorities to maintain electoral viability. The Sailer Strategy suggests that Republicans focus on getting the white vote.

Republicans do not support the Sailer Strategy, but it’s possible that the strategy is being forced on them. There may be no way to compete with the Democrats in the race to the bottom for the minority vote.

Many people think the Sailer Strategy won’t work, despite the fact that it’s been working in the South since black people have been allowed to vote. If this article is any indication, It appears that Democrats are concerned the strategy is already working.

By any standard, white voters’ rejection of Democrats in November’s elections was daunting and even historic.

Fully 60 percent of whites nationwide backed Republican candidates for the House of Representatives; only 37 percent supported Democrats, according to the National Election Poll exit poll conducted by Edison Research. Not even in Republicans’ 1994 congressional landslide did they win that high a percentage of the white vote.

Moreover, those results may understate the extent of the white flight from the Democratic Party, according to a National Journal analysis of previously unpublished exit-poll data provided by Edison Research.

The new data show that white voters not only strongly preferred Republican House and Senate candidates but also registered deep disappointment with President Obama’s performance, hostility toward the cornerstones of the current Democratic agenda, and widespread skepticism about the expansive role for Washington embedded in the party’s priorities. On each of those questions, minority voters expressed almost exactly the opposite view from whites.

. . .

Axelrod, who plans to return to Chicago next month to help direct the president’s reelection campaign, also made it clear that he sees as a "particularly instructive" model for 2012 the case of Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado, who won his contest last fall by mobilizing enough minorities, young people, and socially liberal, well-educated white women to overcome a sharp turn toward the GOP among most of the other white voters in his state.

If that coalition makes me think of anything, it’s high-quality governance.

From every angle, the exit-poll results reveal a new color line: a consistent chasm between the attitudes of whites and minorities. The gap begins with preferences in the election. . . .

But even so, a solid 73 percent of all nonwhite voters–African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and others–backed Democratic House candidates in the midterm election, according to the new analysis.

Meanwhile, Republicans, with their 60 percent showing, notched the party’s best congressional result among white voters in the history of modern polling.

There’s interesting data among whites, as well:

Measured both geographically and demographically, these new exit-poll results show that Democrats maintained openings in only slivers of the white electorate. In House elections, the bottom fell out for Democrats in both the South (where they won just 24 percent of whites) and the Midwest (37 percent). The party remained relatively more competitive along the coasts, capturing 46 percent of white voters in the East and 43 percent in the West.

. . .

These emphatic 2010 results represented another shovel of earth on the grave of the New Deal electoral coalition, centered on working-class whites, that long anchored Democratic politics.

. . .

"At the levels of [white discontent] you are talking about, no amount of surge voting [from minorities and young people] is going to overcome that," says Mike Podhorzer, deputy political director of the AFL-CIO.

Now, if only someone would tell Republicans . . .

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5 Responses to The Sailer Strategy and the awakening of white America (maybe)

  1. Samson says:

    Republicans do not support the Sailer Strategy, but it’s possible that the strategy is being forced on them.

    Yes, I think demographic shift makes it well-nigh unavoidable. I think most Americans still (still!) have no idea that Latins and religious whites are having most of the babies in your country. The result in 20 years will be a cohort of new voting whites that is smaller, but much more conservative, than the the current crowd.

    This is also why – and I am almost hesitant to raise this point, because I feel at times like a broken record – but this is why a trend away from social conservatism is not necessarily the ticket to victory for Republicans. I read an Obama interview recently on the topic of DADT repeal, in which he said that in 20 years DADT will likely stand as one of his highest achievements. I thought, “Well… really? Among whom? Do you comprehend who will be populating the nation 20 years hence?”

    Thanks for the plug the other day, BTW.

  2. […] wrote about the Sailer Strategy yesterday, Richard Spencer and Whiskey have more thoughts on the […]

  3. The “Sailer strategy” is bad news all around. If it works in getting Republicans elected (which it could if done well), then you’ve simply promoted an ineffective opposition party into power who have zero clue how to govern and zero clue how to fix any of the country’s real problems.

    If it fails, then you have struck the king without killing him. The left will become even more paranoid about racial issues, less compromising, less willing to examine the faults of their own voting blocks lest they give ammo to the enemies.

    Democratic polarization is bad enough. Democratic polarization that breaks down on strong racial lines is ten times worse.

    • Foseti says:

      I’m not sure. He also adds that once the Democratic Party is seen as “the black party” it will be abandoned by everyone else (ie Hispanics). No one wants to be governed by blacks – even a big portion of blacks, I would guess.

    • Buckethead says:

      I think we might get the bad effects regardless. The Republican party is already regarded by the left as the white people’s party. If even by accident it began acting in any way as an actual white people’s party then you’d have that polarization.

      The only thing that’s stopping it is the Republican refusal to be a white people’s party. And that’s because a majority – a large majority – of its constituents are still steadfastly refusing to think in terms of identity politics, no matter how much reality spits in their faces. I don’t know what it would take for the white population to start thinking of itself as the white population. Most whites still think of themselves as Americans – a hold-over from when that was actually the case.

      I’m not sure which would be worse – if the Sailer Strategy comes into being either by accident or design, polarization as Devin outlines. But how can we avoid it? If the right continues to avoid such tactics, they lose, and the decline accelerates with greater immigration and other misguided policies. Sooner or later, the native americans are against the wall.

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