The Sailer Strategy is a strategy for the Republican Party to dominate US politics.
Current Republican orthodoxy suggests that the party must pander to minorities to maintain electoral viability. The Sailer Strategy suggests that Republicans focus on getting the white vote.
Republicans do not support the Sailer Strategy, but it’s possible that the strategy is being forced on them. There may be no way to compete with the Democrats in the race to the bottom for the minority vote.
Many people think the Sailer Strategy won’t work, despite the fact that it’s been working in the South since black people have been allowed to vote. If this article is any indication, It appears that Democrats are concerned the strategy is already working.
By any standard, white voters’ rejection of Democrats in November’s elections was daunting and even historic.
Fully 60 percent of whites nationwide backed Republican candidates for the House of Representatives; only 37 percent supported Democrats, according to the National Election Poll exit poll conducted by Edison Research. Not even in Republicans’ 1994 congressional landslide did they win that high a percentage of the white vote.
Moreover, those results may understate the extent of the white flight from the Democratic Party, according to a National Journal analysis of previously unpublished exit-poll data provided by Edison Research.
The new data show that white voters not only strongly preferred Republican House and Senate candidates but also registered deep disappointment with President Obama’s performance, hostility toward the cornerstones of the current Democratic agenda, and widespread skepticism about the expansive role for Washington embedded in the party’s priorities. On each of those questions, minority voters expressed almost exactly the opposite view from whites.
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Axelrod, who plans to return to Chicago next month to help direct the president’s reelection campaign, also made it clear that he sees as a "particularly instructive" model for 2012 the case of Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado, who won his contest last fall by mobilizing enough minorities, young people, and socially liberal, well-educated white women to overcome a sharp turn toward the GOP among most of the other white voters in his state.
If that coalition makes me think of anything, it’s high-quality governance.
From every angle, the exit-poll results reveal a new color line: a consistent chasm between the attitudes of whites and minorities. The gap begins with preferences in the election. . . .
But even so, a solid 73 percent of all nonwhite voters–African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and others–backed Democratic House candidates in the midterm election, according to the new analysis.
Meanwhile, Republicans, with their 60 percent showing, notched the party’s best congressional result among white voters in the history of modern polling.
There’s interesting data among whites, as well:
Measured both geographically and demographically, these new exit-poll results show that Democrats maintained openings in only slivers of the white electorate. In House elections, the bottom fell out for Democrats in both the South (where they won just 24 percent of whites) and the Midwest (37 percent). The party remained relatively more competitive along the coasts, capturing 46 percent of white voters in the East and 43 percent in the West.
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These emphatic 2010 results represented another shovel of earth on the grave of the New Deal electoral coalition, centered on working-class whites, that long anchored Democratic politics.
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"At the levels of [white discontent] you are talking about, no amount of surge voting [from minorities and young people] is going to overcome that," says Mike Podhorzer, deputy political director of the AFL-CIO.
Now, if only someone would tell Republicans . . .