Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes that the US is about to bounce back and achieve new awesome things.
As best I can tell, his argument is threefold: 1) America has a good chance of achieving "energy independence" due to shale oil and hydraulic fracturing; 2) re-insourcing (bringing back manufacturing jobs) is on the upswing; and 3) America has a relatively high fertility rate for a developed country.
An American resurgence may happen, but it won’t happen for any of these reasons. Energy independence is a stupid concept. Even if the US produces as much oil as it consumes, the price of oil will still be largely determined by production in the Middle East. Ultimately, the cost of energy is what matters, and if the only way to produce energy is to break rocks, energy is going to be expensive.
I’m skeptical about re-insourcing, but even if it is happening en masse, it’s too little, too late with respect to turning the American underclass into a middle class.
Fertility rates in aggregate in America are meaningless. What matters is who specifically is reproducing. Dysgenics reigns with respect to American reproduction rates.
Plus, America has lots of problems that these changes won’t solve. For example, Peter Thiel makes the "point . . . that the government is ‘huge’ but ineffective because it acts randomly." I’m not sure I would have used the word "random" but various government agencies certainly work in ways that run at cross-purposes to the actions of other government agencies, which may be worse than random.