It’s been fun, post election, to watch mainstream commentators discover demographics. It’s been especially fun to watch mainstream conservatives discover that the demographic shifts that they’ve encouraged (cheap chalupas!) have pushed the US electorate leftwards on virtually every issue.
In this post, I’d like to highlight the best analysis of demographics and the election. I’d also like to add my own thoughts.
First, it’s necessary to establish the demographic trends that we’re actually seeing. In a development that will surprise nobody that’s been paying attention, nobody does this better than Steve Sailer.
Happily for this blogger – who considers himself an HBDer and a denizen of the manosphere – the Democratic Party’s coalition is one of NAMs (and Asians) and loose women (I feel a Waylon Jennings song coming on, but maybe that’s just the booze talking). Someone can probably come up with a good name for this coalition, but in the meantime, I’ll lamely propose: The Coalition of Third-Worldism and Civilizational Decay. Or perhaps “Idiocracy in Action” is more catchy. If I were polite (and non-anonymous), I would have put this point this way.
Next, it’s worth ruminating on the fact that the perpetual expansion of the electorate is one of the reasons why Western societies constantly move leftwards. Nobody made this point better than Audacious Epigone, who shows electoral college outcomes under various suffrage scenarios. He notes:
Romney wins the electoral college among white men 490-41 (7 undecided). . . .
If the US looked like Nebraska, it wouldn’t necessarily follow that we’d have a two-party system consisting of a perpetual majority and an ever-defeated opposition. Instead, general election campaigns would be as competitive as they are today. Gauging public sentiment has come a long, long way from Dewey beats Truman, and campaigns on both sides are able to calibrate the message precisely enough to reliably get, at a minimum, say 45% of the vote. The difference would be that general elections would look like Republican primaries do now, and the typical Republican primary would resemble a debate between Sailer, Auster, Buchanan, Barone, Raimondo, and Reynolds.
I confess, dear reader, that I would probably lower myself to commit the prole act of actually voting in such a primary.
Anyway, Jim adds some more thoughts. The point is that we continue to march ever leftwards.
Finally, we must note that the Republican Party (though not actual men of the right) will react accordingly. Few other commenters have suggested how the Republican Party will react, so I will (ever humbly) take it upon myself to speculate.
Before speculating, I must note that the following thoughts are my suggestions for what will happen, not what should happen.
The greatest statesman of the 20th Century wrote a memoir that is essentially a warning against universal suffrage in diverse societies. To put the point bluntly and concisely, good government is incompatible with universal suffrage and diversity.
The Democratic Party has been successful because it has been able to portray the Republican Party as the party of the white guy. If history is any guide, the Republican Party will respond by isolating the group within the Democratic Party that is the least popular and portraying the Democratic Party as the party of that group. (I warned you that universal suffrage and diversity are not a pretty combination – we’ll get what we’ve been asking for, good and hard).
It seems to me that the likeliest candidate for this group is blacks. First, they vote Democratic in absurd levels. When Soviet leaders used to fake elections, they would fake the results at something like 92-8. Blacks vote Democratic in similar, but often more extreme, proportions (which always strikes me as embarrassing, but which everyone else seems to consider totally reasonable).
Second, while many people hope that blacks will succeed, very few people actually want to do things like live near them, for example. Have you ever seen Hispanics, homos, Asians, etc. actually interacting with blacks? The Democratic coalition is a lot of things, but stable is not one of them.
To bolster my point, whites that live near blacks (outside of DC) tended to vote Republican. If the Republican Party can paint the Democratic Party as the black party, it seems likely that many tribes will abandon the Democrats.
Indeed, it’s worth going further and considering whether or not the Democrats could win without nominating someone that isn’t black and whether they’ll ever be able to nominate another black person that is like Obama.
Yglesias notes (though he doesn’t explicitly say so) that in order to win Ohio, the Democrats had to nominate a black guy. It’ll be hard for the Democrats to nominate another black guy that doesn’t basically paint them as the black party. Dudes that appeal to all races – white, black, Muslim dad, raised partly in Asian countries, etc. – aren’t easy to come by.
Another possibility is that the Republicans will focus on another unpopular group within the Democratic coalition – sluts. Sandra Fluke spoke at the Democratic convention. Her accomplishments include (and are limited to) being rich and demanding free birth control after choosing to attend a Catholic institution of higher education.
Approximately 2% of the population believes that rich chicks with boyfriends who are likely shooting blanks anyway (have you seen pictures of the guy? . . . or her?) should receive free birth control after choosing to attend a Catholic educational institution. It remains a fact that sluts don’t aspire to be sluts – even the Republican Party should be able to figure this out.
Many commentators have expressed their beliefs that in the results of this election, we have seen our future. This is a future in which the Republicans are doomed to irrelevance thanks to demographic trends.
I agree that we’ve seen a glimpse of our future. However, I believe this future is one in which voting becomes increasingly tribal. The results will not be pretty – they never have been in such cases. In the meantime though, the chalupas are cheap and we get feel really good about our own senses of open-mindedness, so enjoy.