How to obscure reality with statistics

A disproportionate number of converts to the dark enlightenment seem to come from a libertarian background.

Art Carden may or may not be a dark enlightenment sleeper agent.  It’s getting hard to tell.

He argues that Bayes’ Theorem (which a certain sort of libertarian has a particular affinity for) would suggest that Chechnans aren’t terrorists.  I confess to having lost the ability to understand his arguments, which conclude,

If p(Muslim|Terrorist) is 95.3%–the number from Easterly’s post; I haven’t verified it, but for the sake of the argument, let’s assume it’s accurate–and there has been a terrorist attack, then yes, the terrorist was probably a Muslim. Some commenters are absolutely right to point this out, but this doesn’t mean we should be suspicious of Muslims in immigration policy, security policy, or day-to-day life.

Facts, apparently, don’t have consequences.  At least certain facts.

On the dark enlightenment side, we have Sailer, who notes, “There are only about 200 Chechens in the United States, so 1% of all Chechens here have turned out to be spectacular terrorists.”

And HBDChick, who you should read in full.

On a side note, it’s apparently possible to become a citizen while under FBI surveillance.  I guess the FBI is a fan of Bayes’ Theorem.

Anyway, events happen.  Someone needs to be able to explain:

misfithyper-Sunni haarpfucker and his average younger brother blew up the capital of the Brahmin caliphate—and the fleas who ride the rats’ asses saw in them Allah’s response to their prayer, their prayer that the bombers be white Americans. White American Salafi Chechens from Kyrgyzstan; what a world we live in! Would Dzhokhar Tsarnaev have called himself white? We may never know; certainly we can’t just ask the boy—a boy of 19; what a world we live in!—but his ‘nigga’-peppered Twitter suggests that doubt is reasonable, and we can only hope against the ways of the world that those small men who live within earshot of the fleas will see.

And it ain’t gonna be libertarians.


36 Responses to How to obscure reality with statistics

  1. asdf says:

    “libertarian background.”

    Seems hard to believe, considering actual libertarians are more like cheap chulupas. I think what you really mean is that most dark enlightenment people are male STEM majors/high prole tradesmen that don’t like paying taxes and generally want to be left alone.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Before I “found reaction” I was an intern at an orange line Libertarian outfit. I was in college and didn’t actually pay any taxes and I thought in the abstract that taxes were bad because muh freedom.

    Now that I actually do pay taxes I realize that taxes are just fine and I would gladly, gladly pay 50-60% income taxes IF those taxes paid for top notch government services that personally made my life better.

    I generally want to be left alone, but that’s because the cathedral has turned the majority of people into such miserable fucks that I can’t stand to be around them.

    • Tarl says:

      We only have a century of experience that tells us that ever-increasing levels of taxation leads to ever-decreasing freedom and quality of life. But hey I guess some people don’t like to reach snap judgments before all the facts are in…

      • Marc Cabot says:

        To be fair, he said he’d gladly pay the taxes *if* they bought him improved quality of life. You might argue – and have much to support you – that that’s not ever going to happen and so it’s a silly hypothetical, but I think it *was* a hypothetical.

      • asdf says:

        Ever increasing taxation created Scandinavia and Japan, both of which work just fine.

      • Marc Cabot says:

        Good point, but those two countries may have a point of similarity they don’t share with the US… hang on… it’ll come to me…

  3. Anomaly UK says:

    More a case of obscuring reality with vagueness and misdirection, really. Yes, if 90% of terrorists are muslims, that still means most muslims are not terrorists. Nobody would seriously dispute that. On the other hand, if 90% of terrorists are muslims, then if you exclude all muslims, you reduce terrorism by 90%. Which of those is more important is not a matter of statistics but of priorities.

    You could even claim that if you reduce the muslim population by 10% through immigration policy, you can expect to reduce terrorism by 9%. That’s debatable, but Carden isn’t trying to debate it, rather, he’s trying to distract from it.

    • Handle says:

      Exactly right.

      And more to the point, since Carden is talking about policy decisions, he is quick to say what he things is wrong, but not quick to applaud the “less wrong” (ironic given the Bayesianism crowd mantra), or tell what a more right Bayesian policy responsive to new statistical information looks like.

      Because that’s really the question when it comes to what the government actually chooses to do. How should we allocate scarce resources? Security effort and immigration slots? Willy Nilly? Random lottery? Survival of the scammiest who are the most able and willing to game our refugee, asylum, and other entry systems?

      The choice is stark. Do nothing intelligent, (“reality based”) or do something focused (which mean, alas, you must sometimes rely on those Bayesian hatefacts). Discriminate, or be indiscriminate.

      So, Art Carden can only tell us two things: Either we 1. Ignore “p(Muslim|Terrorist) is 95.3%” (that is, have the TSA fondle granny’s junk), or 2. Use “p(Muslim|Terrorist) is 95.3%”.

      If it’s 1, Art should just come out and say so, and in more explicit terms. “Only at X% under condition Y should we stray from our indiscriminate practices”. If it’s 2, Art should tell us what would be ok with him.

      Since he hasn’t done this, I’m starting to suspect he’s merely posturing.

      • jamzw says:

        Wrong question. It makes not a bit of difference what percentage of Muslims are terrorist. The great majority of Muslims are tolerant (at the minimum) of terror. Wherever Muslims have communities around the world terror has a place to stay.

  4. Caucasian terrorists!- you can’t say David Sirota didn’t get his wish.

    Libertarians have become more left-libertarian than right, while a couple decades ago there were only a small number of leftist llibertarians. Right-libertarianism has been attrited over this time by the impossibility of achieving any libertarian, mainstream conservative policies in real life. Libertarians are mostly fine with race realism and genetic IQ but figure “freedom” will sort things out. I was a libertarian conservative back in the day, I was even a Bush-Cheney community leader in 2004. I think the Bush amnesty attempt in 2005 put me off permanently.

  5. dearieme says:

    Should libertarians take encouragement from the demonstrated incompetence of the FBI and the sundry police forces over the last few days? I suppose not.

    • VXXC says:

      Madam [?],

      What do you do? Because if you do it successfully we, the State with our allies in the Media shall utterly ruin you to less than 1 standard deviation above Sandusky [who recall did far worse than rape boys. He disgraced Clan Football Penn State]. But we shall also put you at Hard Penal Labor for 7 years. Chain gang in a quarry. That madam is what SGT Grainer USAR-W.Va got for following explicit orders at Abu Gharib.

      So if you do your job Dear Madam, we shall ruin and destroy your life. And you’ll be a convict.

      This madam is what the FBI and every other defender of You The Victims faces, yes including the soldiers and spies.

      Not a day went by in training for Iraq we were not threatened with Jail, and our Officers heard it constantly.

      Now most of us will risk Harm or Death. Few will risk prison..or.will.they?

      Understand that every detail of GITMO has personal Oval Office Oversight. Quite serious. Your every misstep real or imagined shall be on a videotape with report on the Presidents desk in 12 hours. I wasn’t at GITMO but I have it on Comrades authority.

      You see Ye the Victims – you are Sheep you know – are not the Masters of Your Fate. However we your Defenders aren’t either. Or this would have been over 12 years ago within months.

      Until they who have Veto over us have no more Vote [I certainly don’ t mean YOU] ye shall continue as prey on the Jihadi Safari Preserve.

      Frankly this week I have been praying to God and the Blessed Mother for detachment from your Fate. It clouds my judgement and makes me needlessly irritated. Please if you can say a quick prayer for me to achieve this peace of mind. Certainly nothing can rouse ye to defend yourselves. Ye are Sheep.

      And light a candle in your local Orthodox Church, for your most Valiant Defender is in fact Prince Vlad, and the most important Alphabet soup is – FSB.

      I am quite serious and hopefully free of snark on every particular.

  6. VXXC says:

    “And it ain’t gonna be libertarians.” – I’m gonna like you on that.
    Reaction is correct, it’s RIGHT…but …mmm..ah.. be not seduced further by the siren song of reason.

  7. Misophile says:

    I for one came from a pretty much socialist background, and the “Dark Enlightenment” as it’s called has basically made me a national socialist…

  8. MPC says:

    As a young high school student I was an average Republican.

    I later considered myself a libertarian, in my later high school and early college years.

    A combination of maturing experiences in my life while in college (I was an irresponsible punk in those days) and a changing political environment in the world at large slowly woke me up. I think the financial crisis of ’08 was the initial catalyst. Fear, above all, slowly changed me. Fear of the consequences of my course, and those of society’s course. I had been raised religious, but was disrespectful of God. Libertarianism like all forms of leftism ultimately worships man as a god. In that time of my life I first came to fear God. Then I learned what it meant to worship God.

    Libertarians look back in search of better systems of (political) organization. Specifically they get back to Locke, Mill, etc. I think their unorthodox tendencies among leftists and the fact that they look to the past makes them ripe for dark enlightenment if they can be shaken enough to have to look back even further. At least to get them to Machiavelli – his dark view of mankind and the reality of political organization was the first step away from libertarianism I took. Once you can get a libertarian to realize that his plans are for naught because his view of humanity is naively utopian, there’s no going back for him.

    I came to realize that in all these troubles that America’s problem is Americans. That opened Pandora’s box.

    Reactionary tendencies I think move in direct correlation with austerity. Leftism has ultimately been made possible by man learning how to burn various compact organic matter in productive ways. That new ability to combust material has made man think that he is a god. When he’s out of stuff to burn, his godhood gets put into doubt real fast. Fear and scarcity are powerful forces, that austerity unleashes. So I believe more austerity, more trouble = more reactionaries.

    • spandrell says:

      With economic decline we’ll see panicking leftists doubling down in the insanity, and a small increase in reactionaries who notice how bad the thing is going. Leftists will feed upon the growing reactionary movement and scapegoat it, fueling further insanity.

      Oh god we’re fucked.

      • Handle says:

        On the one hand, this seems plausible.
        On the other hand, it might be nice for the permitted futile opposition to at least be reactionary and right instead of the farcical calamity it is now.

        On the other foot, the neoreaction may be the first scapegoat to achieve sentience and full awareness of its own scapegoating. Probably won’t be able to thwart it, but at least anticipating and frustrating and mocking the boringly predictable efforts of the enemy will be fun. Worth a Menckian smirk or two.

      • VXXC says:


        Do you know how the cognitive elite came into being?

        They’re cowards.

        And war profiteers.

        The cognitive elite dodged the Draft in WW2, and profited from the Empire gained for State ..the perfect example is George Ball.
        The deferment dodge continued for the length of the draft, as they are very inbred breeding cowardice to cowardice from 1940-1973. Their self-loathing reached toxic levels with Vietnam when they spit on the ones who did their duty. Their loathing is only publicly abated since Desert Storm excised the cancer from the public.

        Inside they still loathe all, above all themselves.

        Just as bravery is probably inherited so is cowardice. The intersection of nature and nurture that is family would have hardly bred courage in House du Noblesse sans Oblige.

        So you’re “fucked” by that?

        Buck up man.

      • Nick B. Steves says:

        Once a leader worthy to be followed steps forward, the great mass of men will follow with enthusiasm–not least because he speaks the truth laid plain as ever in the consciences of all. The great lies will be discredited almost immediately and politics, tho’ every Westerner sucked it from his mother’s breast, will vanish overnight. Very few, I think, will require killing.

      • VXXC says:

        Mr. Steves,

        Is your arm broken? And the rest of you? Dear Sirs Tribunes of the People can always step forward. You advocate, well go and fight for it then. Waiting for Mohammed isn’t what happens, including with Mohammed.

        [Insert finger pointing Icon Here]

        Really Dears it is Your Hour. You don’t wait for a Hitler as foe, a Gatsby is a Godsend. Especially when it’s a Gatsby surrounded by Callow Children, born I swear in Mens Rea. That’s USG now.
        NOW. You live NOW.

        It’s OUR WATCH.

        You have the Dark Englightenment? Well here’s the Dark Realization. It’s YOUR WATCH.

        So? Shall Ye? Shall We?

      • Nick B. Steves says:


        When Paul Atreides shows up, we’ll all know it is time. Til’ then stay strong, travel light, and keep an ear to the ground.

  9. […] How to obscure reality with statistics | Foseti […]

  10. Handle says:

    Neat Dark Enlightenment Visualization

    “You know you’ve made it when … “

  11. Handle says:

    Happy Anniversary.

    It was 6 years ago today that Mencius Moldbug posted his Formalist Manifesto at 2blowhard.

    And tomorrow marks the dawn of UR. As good a day as any to start a club.

    • Nick B. Steves says:

      … and start the Antiversity: correct where La Wik is correct, correct where Conservapedia is correct, and correct where neither of the above is correct. Propaganda works best when it is true, and power will flow from the truth, as the spring rains water the earth.

      • Nick Land says:

        The Antiversity is certainly worth trying, but it will founder upon the Spandrellian Trichotomy. (Just for starters, how much dark realist consensus is to be anticipated on the topic of the Jewish contribution to Western Civilization?)

      • Nick B. Steves says:

        I was thinking of that, too. If you can unite the arms, then you’ll have potent weapon, but if you cannot, you’ll just end up with the same intramural squabbling we have today…

        It seems there are we things we all know, and because we know them we agree on them.

        Then there are things that we merely like. What we like may really be far more interesting to us, far more definitive of what each of us stands for.

        As long as the Antiversity can separate fact from opinion; being rigorous and overwhelming correct on the former, and avoid being overly offensive toward dissenters on the latter, you might still be able to get it to work. But it would have to be ruled with an iron hand (or three) in either case.

  12. Handle says:

    Put out a DC-area reactionary roundtable meetup email. Could you put out a bleg post to see if anyone else might be interested?

  13. VXXC says:

    Uh events may overtake you. For instance this could be M’uadib here…I think what you actually may mean is you’ll join if they’re winning…Yes?

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